![]() Mr Fogerty cited “ The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis’ from the CIA’s website by Richards J. ![]() Given the choice, I prefer to start from first principles and routinely check to make sure conventional wisdom has empirical support." Every time.” That was sort of preaching to the choir. I had a mentor who used to say “there’s no silver bullet in investing, you just have to think it through. ![]() Mr Fogarty noted “ This Hertz call isn’t a situation I’d encountered before so I’d guess it’s a pretty unusual situation. At the time of Mr Fogarty's report, of the Wall Street analysts that covered the stock, 8 had buys, 2 had holds and only 1 recommended selling. The average price target was around $118 and it was trading around $109. This was a very contrarian idea at the time given the rental car market was consolidating, a smart activist investor had just bought a stake and the company was spinning-off a division. ” The article interviewed Tom Fogarty, an analyst, who had identified Hertz as a short. ![]() I was recently reading about Hertz, the rental car company in which the stock price had been decimated, falling 92% from its highs in 2014. I came across a note titled “ How Hertz became the perfect contrarian short in 2014. ![]()
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